风口智库·首席连线 | 连平：四方面协同推进 进一步提振消费需求
疫情要防住、经济要稳住、发展要安全。在经济恢复的关键时点，要全面贯彻落实中央政治局会议精神，立足我国超大规模市场优势，在扩大需求上积极作为，增强经济增长的内生动力，不断巩固经济回升向好趋势，为经济高质量发展打下坚实基础。当前，制约国内需求不足的主要因素有哪些？推动有效投资和增加消费，宏观政策应怎样积极作为？8月5日，风口财经独家专访了植信投资首席经济学家兼研究院院长、中国首席经济学家论坛理事长连平。
风口财经：政治局会议强调宏观政策要在扩大需求上积极作为，国务院常务会议部署进一步扩需求举措，推动有效投资和增加消费。结合中国经济的结构和发展来看，扩大需求在稳增长中发挥怎样的作用？
风口财经：近日公布的7月中国制造业采购经理指数（中国制造业PMI）和财新中国制造业采购经理人指数（财新制造业PMI）双双回落。您认为最主要的原因是什么？
风口财经：上半年经济数据显示，今年我国经济复苏仍表现为外需恢复强于内需。您认为，制约国内市场需求释放不足的主要原因有哪些？
风口财经：提振消费是对冲经济下行压力的重要着力点。国家统计局数据显示，2022年上半年餐饮收入同比下降7.7%，居民旅游出行等服务消费也有所减少。您认为，应如何进一步提振消费需求？
一是保障和促进就业，鼓励灵活就业。可在财政政策支出端积极发力，发挥保市场主体保就业的托底作用。加大对受困主体的经济补偿，比如对困难较大的行业企业等提供财政补贴和更大力度的稳岗补助等，帮助市场主体缓解现金流压力，避免大面积裁员出现；借鉴美欧经验，支付员工部分工资；对于“稳就业”企业给予财政奖励和力度更大的减税降费等。货币政策工具设计激励相容机制，提高金融机构参与积极性。出台优惠政策鼓励银行等金融机构参与中小企业救助。例如对金融机构适当给予有利条款或优惠利率；对于坏账率进行兜底以及提高免责和减责比例等。应出台相关政策禁止随意辞退大龄员工，鼓励企业招聘时适当放宽年龄界限。未育或者有生育多胎计划的女性在招聘时不得性别歧视。要避免职业歧视。应出台政策保障灵活就业者和自由职业者的基本权益，增加社保自行缴纳途径和渠道。加强对待业人员的相关业务技能培训，促进再就业。
二是大力发展新模式新业态发展，培育新型消费。当前疫情下实体店纷纷歇业，新消费在线销售模式的优势尽显。为更好地引导新消费发展，激发新消费的增长潜力，让消费者更多地从新消费中获得满足，应从加强监管和售后服务，规范提升服务品质和提高技术研发能力。从增强政策层面支持和鼓励创新以及加大扶持力度等方面，来促进新消费市场的有序健康发展。
三是有效促进汽车消费。继续落实好包括车辆购置税减半在内的促进汽车消费相关政策，并可考虑延长优惠时间和加大优惠力度。减少汽车流通环节赋税，进一步降低售价。做好油价调控工作，避免出现连续大幅度涨价。保持当前新能源车补贴力度，加大城市、城镇和农村公共场所以及高速公路加油站新能源车充电桩的建设力度。
四是加大对居民端的直接支持力度。消费券发放范围可进一步扩大。建议按照不同群体的个性化需求和收入弹性，多批次、常态化进行发放，并考虑引入一定的消费退税措施。提高临时最低失业保障金。进一步落实贷款延期政策。探索创设居民专项消费再贷款，引导金融机构设计更多消费金融产品等。
风口财经：着力扩大内需，要加快推进投资项目建设。7月的中国非制造业采购经理指数运行情况中，建筑业商务活动指数为59.2%，比上月上升2.6个百分点，说明前期推进的专项债项目在落地起效。下一阶段，您认为宏观政策在加快推进投资项目建设方面还有哪些发力点？
风口财经：激活民间投资，扩大内需才有了源头活水，您认为，如何进一步降低民间投资门槛、消除隐性壁垒、调动民间投资积极性？
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